Project syndicate has an excellent set of interesting articles by well known economists and finance experts on the post Lehman's era and lessons LINK1.
I particularly like the article by Stephen Roach which examines the end of Quantitative Easing and its impact on emerging markets LINK2. The basic thesis is that QE and easy money in the developed nations meant a flood of money went to emerging market economies in search of higher yield. Now that QE is coming to an end, that money is beginning to exit the emerging markets to return to developed economies where long term bond yields are rising in anticipation of the end of QE. I think it is pretty much spot on, one point worth adding is that if emerging markets are now slowing, that is bound to start affecting developed markets down the road, this combined with higher interest rates in developed markets will ultimately impact on our already sub par growth rates. All in all, it is easy to see how we might be headed for another downturn. Unfortunately, this time with large fiscal policy deficits and virtually zero short term interest rate policies there will not be a lot of room for policy makers to make much of a difference....trouble is brewing!
I particularly like the article by Stephen Roach which examines the end of Quantitative Easing and its impact on emerging markets LINK2. The basic thesis is that QE and easy money in the developed nations meant a flood of money went to emerging market economies in search of higher yield. Now that QE is coming to an end, that money is beginning to exit the emerging markets to return to developed economies where long term bond yields are rising in anticipation of the end of QE. I think it is pretty much spot on, one point worth adding is that if emerging markets are now slowing, that is bound to start affecting developed markets down the road, this combined with higher interest rates in developed markets will ultimately impact on our already sub par growth rates. All in all, it is easy to see how we might be headed for another downturn. Unfortunately, this time with large fiscal policy deficits and virtually zero short term interest rate policies there will not be a lot of room for policy makers to make much of a difference....trouble is brewing!
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