Since the resounding "win" for Boris Johnson in the election it is now certain that the UK will leaver the EU on 31 January 2020 . I don't really think it was a win as much as a terrible performance by the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn who prove to be a spectacularly unpopular leader of the opposition with a terrible quasi communist manifesto that lacked credibility. Anyhow since the election I have had a number of Brexiteers coming up to me saying "you lost we won" in relation to Brexit. My simple reply has been I did not lose I fought a campaign to try to get a second referendum and failed but I am proud I fought for one. My other point is that no one has "won" in fact the UK and the EU are both losers and I think time will tell me I was right on that.

he only thing that pleases me is those responsible for Brexit are now clearly in charge of the process Boris, Gove, Raab, Leadsome etc and as such will be accountable when the sunset uplands are not delivered. The impact on the UK economy will become much clearer when they do not get their great trade deals with the EU and the US and China. I the meantime there Bloomberg has issued a report suggesting that Brexit has already cost the UK £130 billion of output and there is a another £70 billion projected loss by the end of 2020 LINK  What a cost and that's before we leave the great access we already have to the Single Market and the Customs Union !

I am not going to let Boris and his foolish Brexiteers get me down. I remain optimistic that the youngsters will overturn this decision in the not to distant future. I also remain confident that the history books will look back very unfavourably on the Brexiteers and their foolish mission.

So Boris Johnson has somehow managed to "a deal" with the EU which consists of a new Withdrawal Agreement and an accompanying Political Declaration. In my view the deal is a very crappy deal let me explain why

1) There is going to an expensive monitoring of goods crossing the border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Good coming into the UK from the US (perhaps tariff free) could be re-exported to Northern Ireland and face the EU tariff of 10%. If the cars ends up with Northern Ireland resident then they will be able to claim the 10% tariff back. If a Southern Ireland resident buys the car the Southern Ireland will not be able to claim the 10% tariff bank. Well you don't have to be a genius to work out that a Northern Ireland resident might on-sell the car to a southern Ireland Resident and the Northern Ireland resident get the 10% tariff back Effectively the Southern Ireland resident gets the car tariff free. Once in Ireland the car could leak freely into the rest of the EU effectively tariff free. Hence there will need to be costly monitoring to make sure this does not happen.

2) In the absence of a future UK/EU trade deal, the rest of the UK will have to treat the EU (45%) the same as we do the UK, China and Japan and impose tariffs on imported EU good which come into the UK tariff free at present will have to have tariff imposed on them. In addition the EU will have to treat the UK as they do Japan, US and that means impose tariff on our goods that are equivalent to those imposed on the US. China and Japan. That is what departing the Customs Union means. It also means £15 billion in extra costs in the form of bureaucracy for UK companies that they do not currently have. 

3) It is a terrible deal for 66 million UK citizens, as we impose tariff on imported EU goods then this will negatively affect all UK citizen by raising the price of cars, food,clothing, imported inputs into the UK production process  etc.

4) UK will lose access to the single market, we are currently free to sell service across the EU a UK licence is sufficient to do this..Services represent 80% of the UK economy losing our easy access to sell banking, insurance we have a huge surplus on services trade quite a lot of that surplus will disappear.

5)  Losing access to the single market means that 40,000 haulage trucks will have to fight for 4,000 special third country permits after leaving the single market. Devastating for that industry.

6) The UK will become a lot less attractive for both domestic firms (harder to export goods tariff free to the EU) and also as a location for Foreign direct investment. Why put a car factor in Wales or Sunderland to face EU tariffs? Why employ extra people in London if you cannot sell some financial services into Europe that will be done in Dublin, Amsterdam or Paris instead.

7) UK will not be able to recruit so easily from the talent pool both skilled and unskilled that is vital to the health of the UK economy. There is no doubt that the UK has gained greatly from this labour.

In fact most projections show that Boris deal is even worse than Theresa May's deal see Link. Boris deal will worsen GDP by between 2.3% and 7% whereas Theresa May's would worsen GDP by 1.9% to 5.6%. Sure both are better than no deal a fall in GDP of 3.5% to 8.7%. All are very bad outcomes. Many people will be a lot worse off as many fall below the average and others will lose less than the average.

So it now comes down to super saturday. My guess is Boris gets defeated as he does not have the DUP on board Boris Johnson told the DUP in November 2018 

"If we genuinely wanted to do free trade deals, if we wanted to cut tariffs, if we wanted to vary our regulation, then we would have to leave Northern Ireland behind as an economic semi-colony of the EU," he said."And we would be damaging the fabric of the Union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish Sea that are already envisaged in the Withdrawal Agreement.
"Now I have to tell you, no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement

Here is the video 

The guy is basically a liar and a cheat - he is not to be trusted in any way shape or form ! 

The political declaration is not worth the paper that it is written on ! The whole point of Brexit for the Brexiteers is they want to lower standards, remove social protection and they want a hard Brexit ! So I have a simple message do not trust this man or his party on this.

This does not get "Brexit done" it is just the beginning of a very long process of negotiating a new longer term trade deal with the EU and a huge amount of arguing and haggling will continue for years to come.

What will happen. Well it looks like the DUP cannot support this deal, some Labour leave MPs may support it around 5 or 6, some of the 21 he threw out of the Tory party will support it, most of his part including the ERG will now support it. So that means 287 + 7 (labour)  +16 (thrown out Conservatives) + 4 other independents = 315 votes. Not enough he needs 320 votes. That means he will have to ask for an extension till January 31, 2020. My view is the EU will grant an extension and I expect that his deal will get approved if it is subject to a "confirmatory referendum." I have always thought this would end up with a second referendum, 1 million plus will be on the march on super Saturday 19/10/2019 asking for a second referendum or Peoples vote. That is where I believe we will end up sometime next week - time will prove me right or wrong.
 

I encourage you to read then yellowhammer report LINK which the government has been forced to publish last night. It clearly outlines the likely short term impact - massive delays for heavy goods vehicles at Dover-Calais, danger of fuel shortages, a hit to food supplies especially fresh fruit and vegetables, a danger of severe disruption to vital medicines, disruptions to supply chains, danger to animals and the need for a border in Ireland. These are just the short term costs. The longer term costs are far greater in my view, rising unemployment, failed businesses, massive hit to investment and a severe negative impact on GDP. This is what Brexiteers have been trying to hide from the public. This is not the will of the people the last 93 of 95 opinion polls have a majority for remain and only 2 have them equal LINK. These are facts not fiction and by the way the margin for Remain over No Deal is far greater. This government is easily the worst of all time led by the lying cheating Boris Johnson. The only good news is that the criminals Bojo, Gove, Raab, Leadsome, Rees-Mogg are all at the scene of the crime - the Scottish Court yesterday found Bojo's proroguing of Parliament to be unlawful. I am very much looking forward to Bojo following the law of the land and handing in a request for extension of UK membership till 31 January 2020 and I  am looking forward to the election and eventually a second referendum which is in my view the only legitimate way out of this mess.

So Boris Johnson elected by less than 100,000 rabid Tory Brexiteer "no deal" supporters intends to prorogue Parliament for a month. No deal was not on the ballot paper and he lied time and time again during the referendum and he continues to lie to the pubic on a daily basis as an unelected Prime Minister. Now he is acting like a dictator trying to prevent Parliament stopping his crazy reckless "no deal" Brexit. Well you can rely on this stupid government lead by Bojo, Michael Gove, Domic Raab, Priti Pael and Sajid Javid not forgetting the Dominic Cumming in the background to make mistakes and now they have made a major and probably fatal one. If they think this unelected executive is more powerful  than the elected Parliament then they really are more ignorant than I thought they were. The battle is on and they will lose ! John Bercow has it right it is a "constitutional outrage" and will not succeed.

I was on PressTV yesterday talking about BoJo's ridiculous "no deal" Brexit strategy. Let's be clear it is nonsensical the EU cannot change all it rules to keep a leaving party happy ! THe EU27 are far more united than the UK which is diviuded between remainers and leavers, young and old, north and south,England versus Scotland/Wales and Northern Ireland.

Well as expected the idiot Boris Johnson has decided to pursue the "no deal" Brexit bluff strategy and to do this he has appointed an amazingly low caibre of failed politicians who have two things in common - they are "hard Brexit" zealots and of remarkably low calibre ! I mean just look at it - Dominc Raab a low performer sacked by Theresa May, Priti Patel a right wing lunatic sacked by Theresa May for doing dodgy talks in Israel behind everyones back, Sajid Javid yet to prove he has anything other than ambition to be PM as Chancellor,  Liz Truss useless but somehow thinks she should be Chancellor, Gavin Williamson a real nut case, Andrea Leadsom the less I say the better, Jacob Rees Mogg a person who pontificates and is better suited to the Victorian era. I could go on but it really is a cabinet of mediocrity.

So what is their policy to prepare for a hard Brexit and threaten the EU that unless they get rid of the Irish backstop then its a no deal situation. Well I can tell you that when you threaten to massively damage the UK economy as the main way to try and get concessions from the EU then you will fail. Parliament will block Boris "no deal" and the economy will be in a deep recession by september/october precisely because there will a massive hit to investment, confidence and hiring in the run up to the 31st october deadline. Boris Johnson is a Prime Minister playing poker with millions of British citizens lives while holding the cards 2,3,4 7,8 while the EU has a royal flush.  Furthermore, please note Boris UK citizens overwhelming prefer remain to your hard Brexit and Parliament will make sure eventually that their wishes will prevail. A people vote is the only way to end this.

It is quite remarkable how little common sense and knowledge Boris Johnson who is likely to be the next UK Prime Minister has about Europe and for that matter many important issues. This is the man that lied during the referendum about the UKs contribution to the EU budget, who lied about the likelihood of future trade deals and who shows an unbelievable amount of pure ignorance of how the EU works. He is quite unfit to be prime minister and is currently talking up the possibility of a no deal Brexit with October 31st 2019 seen as a "do or die" moment for the Brexiteers.

Well I can tell you now No Deal will not happen on October 31st (i) there is no way that the UK Parliament can be by-passed and it has already made it clear that it is against a no deal outcome. (ii) The UK is likely to already be in recession by 31st October, as Boris and Jeremy Hunt have been talking about the possibility of a "no deal" hard Brexit they have been damaging the UK economy each and every day of their campaigns and (iii) there is no democratic mandate for a "no deal" Brexit, this option was not offered to UK citizens and there is now a clear majority for remain compared to a no deal Brexit in the UK. (iv) the UK is simply unprepared for a no deal Brexit it will cause financial market mayhem, and severely damage car industry, farming sector and financial services industry very quickly. These four factors  will ultimately ensure a no deal Brexit gets ruled out.

Let us also be clear Brexit of any form will be a disaster for the UK economy and the lives of millions of UK citizens. Today the Office for Budget Responsibility has published a report showing the hit to the UK public finances and UK economy will even with a mild form of Brexit be extremely severe. Even with a deal there is a hit to the public finance but to some extent these are mitigated by the fact the UK will get a two year transition deal but in a no deal scenario the hit to the public finance is very substantial easily outweighing any gains from saving €8-9 billion net contribution to the EU budget. The hit to the real economy will also be substantial with a fall in real GDP of 3% minimum and maybe 10% maximum. These wasted billions could much better spent on education, health, housing and improving the lot of the UK poor. Brexit will be a disaster for the poorest and most deprived regions of the UK. The is why we must stop Boris and demand a peoples vote - a hard Brexit without a democratic madate is simply unacceptable Boris. You had better stop your nonsense talk about it since it is already damaging the UK economy.

The UK voted for Brexit in June 2016 and has been dealing with the issue of how to actually leave without heavily damaging the UK economy and its vital trading links with Europe ever since. The process has been all about divisions in the Conservative party over Europe and how to do a deal with the European Union that can keep both sides of the Conservative Party happy and also formulate a deal that can get through the UK Parliament as well. Theresa May has made several critical errors, she famously drew some crucial red lines for her negotiation with the EU - out of the single market and out of the customs union. This meant that any package she was likely to negotiate with the EU would be extremely limited and, of course, meant the real possibility of a border in Ireland since being out of the customs union means the need to impose tariffs and could lead to regulatory divergences that were not acceptable to the EU. She then ran a disastrous election campaign in June 2017 that meant she lost her majority and became dependent on the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to have a working majority in Parliament.

After agreeing terms of the financial settlement with the EU which will be approximately £39 billion, she then set about trying to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. The end product did not go down well in the Houses of Parliament where it has been rejected by large majorities on an unprecedented 3 occasions. Parliament also made it clear by a large majority that it would not countenance a “no deal” Brexit. The net result was that the UK government was forced to ask the EU for an extension of its membership which was duly granted until October 31 and a condition for this extension was that the UK would participate in the forthcoming EU elections.

The Conservative Party remains heavily divided on the issue of Europe, the vast majority of its 100,000 members want a “no deal” Brexit with the UK resorting to dealing with Europe on World Trading Organisation (WTO) terms. Meanwhile its Conservative MPs are heavily divided between those that want to leave the EU but retain a very close trading relationship and a more vociferous grouping of hard Brexiteers that want a hard Brexit with the UK trading with the EU on WTO terms. The Labour Party has itself been heavily divided on Europe, many of its voters come from areas of the country where there was a high voter leave majority and its leader Jeremy Corbyn has what is best described as an “International Marxist” perspective on the European Union, regarding it as a capitalist club and restricting what a prospective future Labour government could do if it came to power. However, the vast majority of labour members and Labour MPs would like a second referendum, as they consider that the damage to the UK economy would particularly adversely impact upon its supporters standard of living and jobs. So its current position is that it will only support a significantly modified version Theresa May’s deal if it is put to a second referendum or so called “Peoples Vote”. However, if there was another General election that it won, then it would prefer to proceed to leave the EU but negotiate a deal that would at least keep the UK in the Customs Union and parts of the Single Market.

Then there is the Liberal Party which under its leader Vince Cable is strongly in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union and also on reversing the Brexit vote via a second referendum. The latest development has been the newly formed Brexit Party set up by Nigel Farage a key player in the original Brexit referendum. His Brexit Party want to leave the European Union as quickly as possible, ideally with a free trade deal that will mean the UK leaves the European Union and without a deal if necessary. There a few other parties involved, there is the Democratic Unionist Party that is generally happy with a hard Brexit but does not want a deal with the EU whereby Northern Ireland has an open border with Southern Ireland but then risks trade barriers being put between itself and the rest of the UK. Neither does it want to be following EU rules to keep the Irish border open while the rest of the UK sets its own laws that differ from those operating in Northern Ireland. In the view of the DUP this would be the beginning of the end of the Union with the rest of the UK and could even lead to the eventual unification of Ireland both of which they strongly oppose. The Green Party is generally in favour of the EU as is the Scottish National Party with the latter arguing that there was a majority vote for remain in the case of Scotland in the referendum. Finally there is the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that wants the UK to leave the EU at all costs and is particularly anti-immigration and generally viewed as being to the far right of British Politics.

In the absence of a Second Referendum, the European Elections will be viewed by many as an important proxy for one. The interesting thing is that the Brexit Party is doing very well in the opinion polls with over 30%, the Labour Party is on about 22% and the Conservative Party vote has collapsed to around 12% with the Liberal Party doing rather well on 17%. Many traditionally Conservative Party voters who want a hard Brexit are switching to the Brexit Party for the European elections while other that are pro-EU may well vote for the Liberal Party or even the Green Party. Many pro-EU Labour Party voters might also vote for the Liberal Party to send a message to the Labour Party leadership that it must come out unambiguously in favour of a second referendum. It will also be interesting to see the voter turnout figures, usually European elections attract only a 20% -30% of the electorate turning out to vote, it will be interesting if there is a much higher turnout this time given the current strong divisions in the UK between Remainers and Leavers. The results will undoubtedly be very bad news for Theresa May and spell the end of her premiership. The voting patterns might also have a strong influence on who becomes the next Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Will the vote mean that the Conservatives decide to vote for Boris Johnson who is in favour of a much tougher negotiating stance with the EU and who is not too concerned with a “no deal Brexit”? Or will the Conservatives look to a leader with a more pro EU stance and even be prepared to consider a Second Referendum as a means of finally resolving the Brexit crisis as a method of ending the threat from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party?

One thing is clear, these are without doubt the most important European elections to ever take place in the UK.  They will be of vital interest to those who are both keen to leave EU and those that are keen to Remain in the EU. It will be difficult to really discern what the results mean as it is only a proxy for a second referendum and turnout is likely to be far less than that what would occur if a Second referendum were to actually take place. Regardless of the result, it is becoming clearer over time that the only way to properly democratically resolve the issue of Brexit is, in fact, a real second referendum with a clear choice being a hard Brexit on WTO terms or Remain.  

Well Parliament has again rightly voted against approving Mrs May's crappy deal by a massive 149 votes her disgusting blackmail strategy of my deal or no deal has failed again. She decided to draw the red lines of leaving the customs union and the single market. She has shown unbelievable incompetence, she has tried to use bribery (DUP bribe £1 billion, money for Brexit leaving towns £1.6 billion), she has repeatedly lied, refusing to release essential documents and tried to by-pass Parliament. Now Parliament is back in control and she is a political irrelevance. She should do the decent thing and resign she is easily the worst prime minister I can recall. The government has finally published the proposed tariffs we will apply in a no deal scenario, it should be remembered that this is only half the story the EU will also have to apply the same tariffs to the UK as it does to the USA and Japan. 

There is a clear solution to all this it is called a peoples vote. I believe a majority in the country would vote remain, a majority of MPs prefer remain and guess what a majority in the EU27 countries want us to remain. What is wrong with asking the tens of millions of UK citizens that will affected by this crucial decision for decades to come for their final opinion on the matter? A vote to remain would solve all these problems quickly and at low cost. A vote to leave would be a bad outcome but even us remainers would shut up and then leave it to the Brexiteers to deal with a "hard Brexit" outcome.

It really is a disgrace how Theresa May is now delaying the "meaningful vote" to March 12th a mere 17 days before a possible "no deal" Brexit. Her deal is crap and no amount on lipstick can make a pig look anything other than pig. Theresa May is surely the worst Prime Minister ever. She has spent two and half years to come back with a deal that both Remainers and Brexiteeers alike have rejected by an overwhelming 230 vote majority. She pretends she is negotiating but she is in fact just cynically running down the clock in a stupid attempt to blackmail Parliament to accept her deal or risk crashing out of the EU with no deal. Well it will not work, this week I expect Parliament to force an extension of Article 50, it cannot allow this incompetent and reckless government being run the the misnamed European Research Group (they do not do research they do ideology!) to risk the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal.

The plain fact is there is a majority in the country to remain in the EU according to virtually every opinion poll LINK1. There is also a majority of MPs who prefer remaining to exiting the EU and there is the EU 27 would prefer the UK to remain rather than exit. This can all be settled by a second referendum allowing a more informed UK public a chance to exit the Brexit debacle. I have said it many times before:

Bloody
Rightwing
Extremist
Xenopobic
Idiotic
Tories

I am supporting a peoples vote so that Parliament can really hear what the "will of the people" is. The Lying Brexiteers Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, David Davis, Liam Fox, Gisela Stuart won the referendum campaign by making false promises and have now been exposed for what they are - make believe nonsense and outright deceit.