The UK voted for Brexit in June 2016 and has been dealing with the issue of how to actually leave without heavily damaging the UK economy and its vital trading links with Europe ever since. The process has been all about divisions in the Conservative party over Europe and how to do a deal with the European Union that can keep both sides of the Conservative Party happy and also formulate a deal that can get through the UK Parliament as well. Theresa May has made several critical errors, she famously drew some crucial red lines for her negotiation with the EU - out of the single market and out of the customs union. This meant that any package she was likely to negotiate with the EU would be extremely limited and, of course, meant the real possibility of a border in Ireland since being out of the customs union means the need to impose tariffs and could lead to regulatory divergences that were not acceptable to the EU. She then ran a disastrous election campaign in June 2017 that meant she lost her majority and became dependent on the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to have a working majority in Parliament.

After agreeing terms of the financial settlement with the EU which will be approximately £39 billion, she then set about trying to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. The end product did not go down well in the Houses of Parliament where it has been rejected by large majorities on an unprecedented 3 occasions. Parliament also made it clear by a large majority that it would not countenance a “no deal” Brexit. The net result was that the UK government was forced to ask the EU for an extension of its membership which was duly granted until October 31 and a condition for this extension was that the UK would participate in the forthcoming EU elections.

The Conservative Party remains heavily divided on the issue of Europe, the vast majority of its 100,000 members want a “no deal” Brexit with the UK resorting to dealing with Europe on World Trading Organisation (WTO) terms. Meanwhile its Conservative MPs are heavily divided between those that want to leave the EU but retain a very close trading relationship and a more vociferous grouping of hard Brexiteers that want a hard Brexit with the UK trading with the EU on WTO terms. The Labour Party has itself been heavily divided on Europe, many of its voters come from areas of the country where there was a high voter leave majority and its leader Jeremy Corbyn has what is best described as an “International Marxist” perspective on the European Union, regarding it as a capitalist club and restricting what a prospective future Labour government could do if it came to power. However, the vast majority of labour members and Labour MPs would like a second referendum, as they consider that the damage to the UK economy would particularly adversely impact upon its supporters standard of living and jobs. So its current position is that it will only support a significantly modified version Theresa May’s deal if it is put to a second referendum or so called “Peoples Vote”. However, if there was another General election that it won, then it would prefer to proceed to leave the EU but negotiate a deal that would at least keep the UK in the Customs Union and parts of the Single Market.

Then there is the Liberal Party which under its leader Vince Cable is strongly in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union and also on reversing the Brexit vote via a second referendum. The latest development has been the newly formed Brexit Party set up by Nigel Farage a key player in the original Brexit referendum. His Brexit Party want to leave the European Union as quickly as possible, ideally with a free trade deal that will mean the UK leaves the European Union and without a deal if necessary. There a few other parties involved, there is the Democratic Unionist Party that is generally happy with a hard Brexit but does not want a deal with the EU whereby Northern Ireland has an open border with Southern Ireland but then risks trade barriers being put between itself and the rest of the UK. Neither does it want to be following EU rules to keep the Irish border open while the rest of the UK sets its own laws that differ from those operating in Northern Ireland. In the view of the DUP this would be the beginning of the end of the Union with the rest of the UK and could even lead to the eventual unification of Ireland both of which they strongly oppose. The Green Party is generally in favour of the EU as is the Scottish National Party with the latter arguing that there was a majority vote for remain in the case of Scotland in the referendum. Finally there is the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that wants the UK to leave the EU at all costs and is particularly anti-immigration and generally viewed as being to the far right of British Politics.

In the absence of a Second Referendum, the European Elections will be viewed by many as an important proxy for one. The interesting thing is that the Brexit Party is doing very well in the opinion polls with over 30%, the Labour Party is on about 22% and the Conservative Party vote has collapsed to around 12% with the Liberal Party doing rather well on 17%. Many traditionally Conservative Party voters who want a hard Brexit are switching to the Brexit Party for the European elections while other that are pro-EU may well vote for the Liberal Party or even the Green Party. Many pro-EU Labour Party voters might also vote for the Liberal Party to send a message to the Labour Party leadership that it must come out unambiguously in favour of a second referendum. It will also be interesting to see the voter turnout figures, usually European elections attract only a 20% -30% of the electorate turning out to vote, it will be interesting if there is a much higher turnout this time given the current strong divisions in the UK between Remainers and Leavers. The results will undoubtedly be very bad news for Theresa May and spell the end of her premiership. The voting patterns might also have a strong influence on who becomes the next Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister. Will the vote mean that the Conservatives decide to vote for Boris Johnson who is in favour of a much tougher negotiating stance with the EU and who is not too concerned with a “no deal Brexit”? Or will the Conservatives look to a leader with a more pro EU stance and even be prepared to consider a Second Referendum as a means of finally resolving the Brexit crisis as a method of ending the threat from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party?

One thing is clear, these are without doubt the most important European elections to ever take place in the UK.  They will be of vital interest to those who are both keen to leave EU and those that are keen to Remain in the EU. It will be difficult to really discern what the results mean as it is only a proxy for a second referendum and turnout is likely to be far less than that what would occur if a Second referendum were to actually take place. Regardless of the result, it is becoming clearer over time that the only way to properly democratically resolve the issue of Brexit is, in fact, a real second referendum with a clear choice being a hard Brexit on WTO terms or Remain.  

Well Parliament has again rightly voted against approving Mrs May's crappy deal by a massive 149 votes her disgusting blackmail strategy of my deal or no deal has failed again. She decided to draw the red lines of leaving the customs union and the single market. She has shown unbelievable incompetence, she has tried to use bribery (DUP bribe £1 billion, money for Brexit leaving towns £1.6 billion), she has repeatedly lied, refusing to release essential documents and tried to by-pass Parliament. Now Parliament is back in control and she is a political irrelevance. She should do the decent thing and resign she is easily the worst prime minister I can recall. The government has finally published the proposed tariffs we will apply in a no deal scenario, it should be remembered that this is only half the story the EU will also have to apply the same tariffs to the UK as it does to the USA and Japan. 

There is a clear solution to all this it is called a peoples vote. I believe a majority in the country would vote remain, a majority of MPs prefer remain and guess what a majority in the EU27 countries want us to remain. What is wrong with asking the tens of millions of UK citizens that will affected by this crucial decision for decades to come for their final opinion on the matter? A vote to remain would solve all these problems quickly and at low cost. A vote to leave would be a bad outcome but even us remainers would shut up and then leave it to the Brexiteers to deal with a "hard Brexit" outcome.

It really is a disgrace how Theresa May is now delaying the "meaningful vote" to March 12th a mere 17 days before a possible "no deal" Brexit. Her deal is crap and no amount on lipstick can make a pig look anything other than pig. Theresa May is surely the worst Prime Minister ever. She has spent two and half years to come back with a deal that both Remainers and Brexiteeers alike have rejected by an overwhelming 230 vote majority. She pretends she is negotiating but she is in fact just cynically running down the clock in a stupid attempt to blackmail Parliament to accept her deal or risk crashing out of the EU with no deal. Well it will not work, this week I expect Parliament to force an extension of Article 50, it cannot allow this incompetent and reckless government being run the the misnamed European Research Group (they do not do research they do ideology!) to risk the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal.

The plain fact is there is a majority in the country to remain in the EU according to virtually every opinion poll LINK1. There is also a majority of MPs who prefer remaining to exiting the EU and there is the EU 27 would prefer the UK to remain rather than exit. This can all be settled by a second referendum allowing a more informed UK public a chance to exit the Brexit debacle. I have said it many times before:

Bloody
Rightwing
Extremist
Xenopobic
Idiotic
Tories

I am supporting a peoples vote so that Parliament can really hear what the "will of the people" is. The Lying Brexiteers Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, David Davis, Liam Fox, Gisela Stuart won the referendum campaign by making false promises and have now been exposed for what they are - make believe nonsense and outright deceit.

As we approach the Brexit day deadline of March 29th, it is now clear that Theresa May is trying to blackmail Parliament into accepting her deal or risk a "no deal" Brexit. It is clear for everyone to see that she is running down the clock to try and force her deal through Parliament.

However, it is clear that Parliament is not at all happy with her Withdrawal Agreement which is loathed by Brexiteers and Remainers alike and was defeated by a record 230 votes Link1. So to try and say it is "my deal or no deal" is not an honourable thing to do. As we get closer to Brexit day it is clear that neither business or road hauliers Link2 are prepared for a no deal Brexit, no one even knows the UK WTO tariff structure Link3 in the event of no deal. Nissan is cancelling its X trailer plans in Sunderland, Ford is considering a possible 7,000 job  cuts Link4, the head of Airbus Link5 is clearly stating that its investment in the UK is under severe threat, business and consumer confidence is plummeting Link6 along with investment plans Link7 and consumers are reluctant to spend as they are fearful of losing their jobs.

Theresa May has caused all of this by her incompetence in drawing red lines about leaving the customs union, leaving the single market and ruling out accepting rulings of the European Court of Justice. She is responsible for the crappy deal she has negotiated. She has tried at every step to bypass parliament and prevent the publication of damaging documents. She has continually tried to stop parliament having a meaningful vote. She has appointed an awful team of negotiators and Brexit ministers. In my opinion she is not fit for any office of state let alone the post of Prime Minister. A country's future should not be determined by the narrow minded views of a single individual. She should do the decent thing and resign, if she continues to blackmail Parliament then Parliament must take the step of passing a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister and eject her from number 10.

Tomorrow is the day for MPs to do their duty and that is to block Theresa May's crappy Brexit deal. The Withdrawal Agreement merely extends our membership to end December 2020 with no votes and then we have a declaration of political intent which is essentially meaningless as all it does it start the negotiations for a new trade deal and it is essentially a "blind Brexit" that she has negotiated. Theresa May has today again said it is "her deal" or no deal - so if her deal is rejected then she should either call a general election or resign but she will do neither as she is interested only in staying in power.

I do not agree in any way shape or form with Brexiteers who say that a second referendum would be catastrophic or "subversion of the democratic process" as Theresa May called it today. It would in fact be a perversion of democracy not to give people a chance to vote on probably the most important decision the UK has made since the second world war. The Vote leave campaign won by dirty tactics and lies after lies ranging from more money to the NHS, that we would be free to do new trade deals and that Turkey was about enter the EU and that this would lead to a flood of new immigrants into the UK and worst of all it would lead to a positive boost to the UK economy. It would be a complete disaster to allow the liars to get their way without giving people a final say on the matter. I have a nice quote from MP Caroline Lucas today:

"The real subversion of democracy is a prime minister who has consistently sought to shut Parliament out of this process from the very beginning, who now refuses to go to the people to see if they are still satisfied with a deal that bears no resemblance to what was promised two years ago."

I recently contributed to a PressTV programme below on rising poverty in the UK. This follows a report by Philip Alston of the United Nation on poverty in the UK LINK1 . It is unacceptable that in the fifth largest economy in the world that so many of our kids are denied a great start to to life while many others in the elite have had very privileged backgrounds and attended to the best schools and Universities. Income and wealth inequality is becoming far too large and needs to be addressed.urgently. Of course the situation will worsen if Brexit goes ahead as that will lead to a loss of jobs and there will be a massive hot to the public finances with less tax coming into the system and ultimately more claiments needing to be looked after.

I have never understood the opposition to a second referendum now that Theresa May's crappy deal is visible for all to see. She has said it is now her deal or no deal and a hard Brexit on World Trade Organisation terms. It is now becoming clear that many Brexiteers hate her deal as they are not going to get the hard Brexit that they want. The Brexiteers hate her crappy deal because it turns the UK into a vassal state, since the UK will require the EU's permission to leave the backstop of the whole of the UK remaining in a customs union. This would mean that the UK would have to follow EU regulations, have no say in the making of the rules and also no ability to do independent trade deals.

It has also been a disastrous day in Parliament for the government and Theresa May's since the government has been found in contempt of Parliament for trying to stop publication of legal advice on the backstop arrangement. Also in the Dominic Grieve amendment it is clear that Parliament will have a far greater say in the process once she loses the meaningful vote on 11th December. More bad news for the government is that the advocate general has indicated that the UK can unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 notice of intention to withdraw and so will not require the consent of the EU27. This means Theresa May's lie that there is either her deal or no deal is now factually wrong as remain is possible if the UK withdraws its Article 50 notification.

We know there  were many lies by the Brexiteers in the lead up to the June 2016 campaign, this alone would justify a second referendum. There is also evidence that there is also now a majority to remain in the EU and in a democracy people have the right to change their minds. How could a vote to leave or remain in a peoples vote be a subversion of the democratic process ? 

A second referendum can be speedily arranged, after all the Greeks did it in one week. It would cost around £200-£250 million and if we voted remain would avoid billions and billions of pounds being wasted. I do not believe that it would be right for Parliament and a majority of MPs alone to withdraw Article 50. My feeling is that the "will of the people" for Brexit can only be democratically undone by another vote in which the "will of the people" is shown to be to remain. In recent weeks, I have been expressing the idea that even the hard Brexiteers will eventually support a second referendum since it will be the only way to get the kind of hard Brexit that they want. Were the Brexiteers to win a second vote, then no one could say that after 2 1/2 years the public were not substantially better informed than they were in the first referendum. Win a second time and the Brexiteers can try to get their own Canada+++ deal or crash out with a hard Brexit. That is called democracy and Brexiteers should seize the opportunity.

My belief is that a second referendum will have a bigger turnout than the first referendum and I predict that remain will win by a bigger margin than the Brexiteers won in the first referendum. This will then settle the debate once and for all as population dynamics will mean the older Brexiteers are dying off  and the youngsters who are mainly remain coming on to the electoral register. So come on Brexiteers support a second referendum as it is the final chance for you to get the Brexit that you want. ​

Well finally we can see  the deal that Mrs May has negotiated after nearly two and half years of negotiations with the European Union. In essence the UK will remain a member of the customs Union for a long long time to come. We will also pay around  €10 billion to €15 billion per annum to maintain market access in the future if no future trade deal can be struck. In fact, we will require the EU permission to actually leave the "Customs Partnership" . What a joke.

Theresa May spent two years saying that the UK would leave the customs union and the Single Market.. Now she is begging the EU for permission to remain in the Customs Union (oh it will now be called a "customs partnership").  She said that no deal is better than a bad deal but now she seems to have capitulated and is accepting that "any deal is better than no deal"..Her negotiating stance has been a complete joke and disaster. The incompetence and foolishness she has demonstrated is breath taking.

The Brexiteers hate her deal as it means the UK will follow EU rules and regulations, pay in cash to finance the EU and will end our ability to do trade deals with non EU countries that they fantasize about. In addition, the UK will become a "rule taker" following EU rules and regulations without any say in their formulation. Meanwhile remainers know that this deal while better than no deal is vastly inferior to remaining in the EU. As remaining in the EU gives us power in setting the rules, benefits the services sector (80%of the UK economy) and gives us a say in the formulation of rules and an ability to block things we do not like.

I do not believe she can get this deal through parliament in a "meaningful vote". I predict that she will lose the vote, she will be forced to resign and there will be a Peoples vote and the result will be a vote to remain. This will then lead to the revocation of Article 50. This mess is without precedent in UK history, the only way out is a second referendum to undo the “will of the people” in the first referendum.

When Theresa May handed in the UK intention to withdraw from the European Union she set off a two-year clock in which the UK is supposed to negotiate a withdrawl Treaty and also a strong political statement of intent concerning the basis for a future trading relationship between the UK and the 27 remaining EU members. The deadline is 29 March 2019 and progress to date has been remarkably slow due to internal divisions in the Conservative Party with Brexitremists like Jacob Rees Mogg, Boris Johnson. Liam Fox and David Davis making it hard to strike a workable deal with the EU which in my view would be a Norway + agreement allowing for UK membership of the Single Market and membership of the customs Union but with the UK becoming an EU “rule taker”.

What is clear is that she and her party had absolutely no end game strategy in place when triggering Article 50. She has at various times said “No deal is better than a bad deal” and that the UK will end the role of the European Court of Justice in British law and decision making, She set out so many red lines, like the UK will not be part of a customs Union, the UK will leave the Single Market and the UK will have complete control of immigration after the 29th March 2019. As we now enter the critical stage of the negotiation process the reality has finally dawned that no deal is in fact not an alternative that any sane UK government could implement. The penny has finally dropped that all these red lines must be crossed to avoid a disastrous no deal Brexit.

May’s current plan is for the UK to have a transition period till December 2020 when the UK essentially stays in the EU with no say in the decision making process. Thereafter, she is looking for the UK to stay in a Customs Union for goods only in order to avoid tariffs and a hard border in North Ireland for as long as it takes to come to a longer-term deal. This is clearly a terrible deal for the UK economy and for Hard Brexiteers to swallow. The UK will not be free to do its own trade deals with the rest of the world, we will lose the benefits of special access to the Single Market for our services sector which is 80% of the UK economy, we will become a rule taking country, we will pay £40-£45 billion exit fee, the European Court of Justice will still have a pivotal say in UK laws as UK courts and we will essentially follow EU rules and legal decisions for at least a decade or more.

​There was a complete mis-selling scandal on the part of Brexiteers of the “benefits” of leaving the EU in the referendum of June 2016 and it is now clear that there is no Brexit Nirvarna as they promised. It seems incredible to me that the Brexiteers can still claim this is the “will of the people” when most opinion polls now suggest there is a majority to remain in the European Union were a second referendum to be held. Is there a way out of this mess? Well hopefully Parliament will block Theresa May’s disastrous deal in the “meaningful vote” in late November/ early December and give UK citizens a “Peoples Vote” to accept her disastrous deal or remain a member of the EU. It is in my view the only way out of this mess.