I was on PressTV yesterday talking about BoJo's ridiculous "no deal" Brexit strategy. Let's be clear it is nonsensical the EU cannot change all it rules to keep a leaving party happy ! THe EU27 are far more united than the UK which is diviuded between remainers and leavers, young and old, north and south,England versus Scotland/Wales and Northern Ireland.
0 Comments
Well as expected the idiot Boris Johnson has decided to pursue the "no deal" Brexit bluff strategy and to do this he has appointed an amazingly low caibre of failed politicians who have two things in common - they are "hard Brexit" zealots and of remarkably low calibre ! I mean just look at it - Dominc Raab a low performer sacked by Theresa May, Priti Patel a right wing lunatic sacked by Theresa May for doing dodgy talks in Israel behind everyones back, Sajid Javid yet to prove he has anything other than ambition to be PM as Chancellor, Liz Truss useless but somehow thinks she should be Chancellor, Gavin Williamson a real nut case, Andrea Leadsom the less I say the better, Jacob Rees Mogg a person who pontificates and is better suited to the Victorian era. I could go on but it really is a cabinet of mediocrity.
So what is their policy to prepare for a hard Brexit and threaten the EU that unless they get rid of the Irish backstop then its a no deal situation. Well I can tell you that when you threaten to massively damage the UK economy as the main way to try and get concessions from the EU then you will fail. Parliament will block Boris "no deal" and the economy will be in a deep recession by september/october precisely because there will a massive hit to investment, confidence and hiring in the run up to the 31st october deadline. Boris Johnson is a Prime Minister playing poker with millions of British citizens lives while holding the cards 2,3,4 7,8 while the EU has a royal flush. Furthermore, please note Boris UK citizens overwhelming prefer remain to your hard Brexit and Parliament will make sure eventually that their wishes will prevail. A people vote is the only way to end this. It is quite remarkable how little common sense and knowledge Boris Johnson who is likely to be the next UK Prime Minister has about Europe and for that matter many important issues. This is the man that lied during the referendum about the UKs contribution to the EU budget, who lied about the likelihood of future trade deals and who shows an unbelievable amount of pure ignorance of how the EU works. He is quite unfit to be prime minister and is currently talking up the possibility of a no deal Brexit with October 31st 2019 seen as a "do or die" moment for the Brexiteers.
Well I can tell you now No Deal will not happen on October 31st (i) there is no way that the UK Parliament can be by-passed and it has already made it clear that it is against a no deal outcome. (ii) The UK is likely to already be in recession by 31st October, as Boris and Jeremy Hunt have been talking about the possibility of a "no deal" hard Brexit they have been damaging the UK economy each and every day of their campaigns and (iii) there is no democratic mandate for a "no deal" Brexit, this option was not offered to UK citizens and there is now a clear majority for remain compared to a no deal Brexit in the UK. (iv) the UK is simply unprepared for a no deal Brexit it will cause financial market mayhem, and severely damage car industry, farming sector and financial services industry very quickly. These four factors will ultimately ensure a no deal Brexit gets ruled out. Let us also be clear Brexit of any form will be a disaster for the UK economy and the lives of millions of UK citizens. Today the Office for Budget Responsibility has published a report showing the hit to the UK public finances and UK economy will even with a mild form of Brexit be extremely severe. Even with a deal there is a hit to the public finance but to some extent these are mitigated by the fact the UK will get a two year transition deal but in a no deal scenario the hit to the public finance is very substantial easily outweighing any gains from saving €8-9 billion net contribution to the EU budget. The hit to the real economy will also be substantial with a fall in real GDP of 3% minimum and maybe 10% maximum. These wasted billions could much better spent on education, health, housing and improving the lot of the UK poor. Brexit will be a disaster for the poorest and most deprived regions of the UK. The is why we must stop Boris and demand a peoples vote - a hard Brexit without a democratic madate is simply unacceptable Boris. You had better stop your nonsense talk about it since it is already damaging the UK economy. |
AuthorThe author of this blog is Keith Pilbeam who is currently Professor of International Economics and Finance at City, University of London. Archives
February 2021
Categories |
- Home
- Blog
- Financial Market Quotes & Charts
- Brexit
- Sponsored Posts
- Interesting Infograhics
- BEF.NEWS Business Economics & Finance News
- WallSt.News
- Speaking, lectures, consultancy
- Business Economics Award Winners 2016
- Business Economics Award Winners 2015
- Business Economics Award Winners 2014
- Advertising on BusinessEconomics.com
-
Financial Products
- Books
- Broker Services
- Contracts for Difference & Spread Betting
- Financial Data
- Financial Training
- Financial Newsletters
- Foreign Exchange Services
- Futures Trading
- Insurance services
- Magazines
- Mortgages
- Options Trading
- Penny Stocks
- Pension provision
- Personal Finance Services
- Savings
- Stocks and Trading
- Technical Analysis products
- Trading and Proprietary Trading
- Wealth Management products & services
- Special Offers
- Trading Education
- Country Data
- Economy at a Glance
- Weekly Economic Calendar
-
Finance Dictionary
- Finance Dictionary Letter A
- Finance Dictionary Letter B
- Finance Dictionary Letter C
- Finance Dictionary Letter D
- Finance Dictionary Letter E
- Finance Dictionary Letter F
- Finance Dictionary Letter G
- Finance Dictionary Letter H
- Finance Dictionary Letter I
- Finance Dictionary Letter J
- Finance Dictionary Letter K
- Finance Dictionary Letter L
- Finance Dictionary Letter M
- Finance Dictionary Letter N
- Finance Dictionary Letter O
- Finance Dictionary Letter P
- Finance Dictionary Letter Q
- Finance Dictionary Letter R
- Finance Dictionary Letter S
- Finance Dictionary Letter T
- Finance Dictionary Letter U
- Finance Dictionary Letter V
- Finance Dictionary Letter W
- Finance Dictionary Letter X
- Finance Dictionary Letter Y
- Finance Dictionary Letter Z
-
Economics Dictionary
- Economics glossary letter A
- Economics glossary letter B
- Economics glossary letter C
- Economics glossary letter D
- Economics glossary letter E
- Economics glossary letter F
- Economics glossary letter G
- Economics glossary letter H
- Economics glossary letter I
- Economics glossary letter J
- Economics glossary letter K
- Economics Glossary letter L
- Economics glossary letter M
- Economics glossary letter N
- Economics glossary letter O
- Economics glossary letter P
- Economics glossary letter Q
- Economics glossary letter R
- Economics glossary letter S
- Economics glossary letter T
- Economics glossary letter U
- Economics glossary letter V
- Economics glossary letter W
- Economics glossary letter X
- Economics glossary letter Y
- Economics dictionary letter Z
- Best News sites
- Business News
- Economics News
- Finance News
- News Videos
- Global Markets
- Global Economy Commentary
- Masters in Business Administration MBA
- Masters in Economics
- Masters in Finance
- Business Education Center
- Economics Education Center
- Finance Education Center
- Economics Fields of Study
- Best Stocks websites
- Tech Stocks
- Best Bonds websites
- Foreign Exchange
- Commodities
- Futures
- Options
- Swaps
- Emerging Markets
- Commercial/Retail Banking
- Investment Banking
- Mergers and Acquisitions
- Insurance
- Mutual Funds
- Exchange Traded Funds ETFs
- Sovereign Wealth Funds
- Islamic Finance
- Hedge Funds
- Private Equity
- Venture Capital
- Best Brokers
- Business Data links
- Economic Data links
- Finance Data links
- Best Business Blogs
- Best Economics Blogs
- Best Finance Blogs
- Blog Aggregator Economonitor
- Business Research
- Economics Research
- Finance Research
- Best Personal Finance websites
- Global Exchanges
- Central Bank links
- National Statistical Offices
- International Organisations
- National Statistics Offices
- Technical Analysis
- Jobs in Business
- Jobs in Economics
- Jobs in Finance
- Best Selling Business Books
- Best Selling Economics Books
- Best Selling Finance Books
- Risk
- Regulation
- Social Media
- Business Journal Rankings
- Economics Journal Rankings
- Finance Journal Rankings
- Business Dictionary Links
- Economics Dictionary links
- Finance Dictionary links
- Personal finance Links
- Foreign Direct Investment
- Economic Think Tanks
- Economics software
- Business Training
- Finance Training
- Economics Training
- Globalization
- Business Dictionary
- Copyright Notice
- Legal Notice
- Real Estate
- Forum
- Bookboon Books in Economics
- Small Business
- Untitled
- Real Estate Investment Trusts
- Home2
- Markets
- Economics Reports
- Financial Crisis Timeline
- Slides F&FM 4th edition
- Charts Economics and Finance
- Financial Resources
- Bitcoin & Crypto