At City University London we have a thriving journalism department and I frequently offer my thoughts and opinions to MSc journalism students who have been assigned various tasks to cover. In general I am actually impressed by a lot of financial Journalism, especially exposes, that I read on the Financial Times, Wall Sreet Journal and Bloomberg/Reuters. However, as an academic I also sometimes see the complexities of things in far more detail because I have had many years to learn about things in greater depth. This is why I am very supportive of online papers like TheConversation.com which is basically a newspaper covering many of the usual topics but its contents comes from primarily academic writers. Nonetheless, after listening to the Charlie Rose debate with journalists below I have started to think about how many uninformed people (including many traders) get their news from Journalists who often lack any real depth of understanding on some of the key issues that they report on. Anyhow the debate below from Charlies Rose. gives some insights into how competitive and demanding a career in financial journalism is in the modern worrld. I think I will stick to the occasional blog post !
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I have downloaded the Uber app and I know plenty of people that use it. However, there are several key thing that puts me off Uber (i) I have no idea what a journey will cost me (ii) I have no idea about the quality of car or driver that will pick me up (iii) I trust london cabbies and the black cabs and I don't trust Uber. It seems that many people have a similar experience and these is an interesting article pointing out that Uber is a far from transparent company. Neither its drivers or passengers have any idea what they will get per journey, The only entity that knows what is going on is Uber itself. In economics this is known as a situation of information asymmentry here is the LINK it is good for the company, of course, but in the long run it seems to me to be an unhealthy strategy. It is also an example of dynamic pricing with the price adjusted according to surges or falls in deman as explained in the video below:
The internet provides fantastic resources for students, educators, professionals and the general public in the areas of business, economics and finance. That is one of the key roles of businesseconomics.com to highlight these sites many of which might otherwise be overlooked. However not all sites are created equal and this is why we give annual awards to highlight some of the best sites in their area. We are aided in the process by nominations from site users and many of the people that run these sites. In determining the awards we received recommendations for 6,052 sites from 51,230 people who voted on our site. When we decided on the sites that should be given the awards, we looked at the quality of content, usability, timeliness of content and the extent to which much of the content is accessible to all web users. We are pleased to announce award winners LINK1 that met all of these criteria and were judged to provide an excellent service to internet users. As usual, we would also like to thank our site sponsor Hotel.info that funded the resources for determining these awards.
There is no doubt that property valuations in many major cities are now in bubble territory. The reason I call it a bubble is that for people on even well above average earnings these Cities properties (London, New York, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Melboure, Sydney, Vancouver) are just unaffordable - even with the help of record low interest rates. The rise in prices has been driven by low interest rates, quantitative easing, a move of the population to the major cities and quite a lot of speculation. However, I think we are now pretty much close to the peak and as interest rates rise a lot of the most expensive properties are going to get hit big time. There is a nice article on WorldFinance LINK1 making the point that rental yields are also very low, meaning property at today's prices is not going to be an attaractive asset class. Some interesting recent research suggests that housing bubbles particularly when debt financed are more harmful when they burst than stockmarket bubbles LINK2. Also remember this - property is a very illiquid asset in a downturn - it;s not like apple shares which you can dispose of at a click of the button on your computer.
Well I was right a deal would be done LINK1 but it got very close to the wire...it has been a spectacular Friday and weekend of negotiations over Greece, It seems to me that Tspiras has basically capitulated and ended up with a far tougher deal than he could have taken LINK2 before walking out on the talks and calling a referendum. That referendum call was a disaster as I have mentioned previously LINK3. There are some positives from this, in particular, Greece will now have to enact various structural and fiscal reforms many of which are desirable for the medium to long term future of Greece. There will also be some "debt reprofiling" and a complete collapse of the Greek banking system has been averted. In the short term capital controls must remain in place for many months and there are still lots of difficulties ahead for the Greek people but remaining inside the Euro is a far better deal than leaving the Euro ! I have managed to keep abreast of developments and ups and downs mainly thought the excellent coverage of the Guardian newspaper LINK4.
Well we are coming to crunch time on the Greek debt situation and the Grexit question. I think Syriza now understands the seriousness of the situation (and in retrospect the foolishness of what they did) I think they will come up with a serious package and with a couple of amendments it will be accepted. That will not mean an immediate return to normality in Greece, there is no way the Germans would let them all go and withdraw their cash from the Greek banking system - it is not that simple any more. Instead there will be some sort of agreement to gradually relax controls as and when the Greeks do their part of the bargain, that is, implement a serious reform package. The Greek banks are in a dangerous situation and this has meant the bargaining power is with the Eurozone creditors not the Greek government. The main reason why I think a deal will be struck is that the creditors are split on Greece with Germany taking a hard line and France, Spain and Italy a softer line. If the Greeks come up with a credible package, the Germans will probably judge it best to maintain European unity. There is also US pressure to keep Greece in the Eurozone. Anyhow I will be proved rght or wrong by Sunday ! A nice video on how we got here below:
Well I hoped the Greeks would cast a Nai (YES) vote but I was wrong - I mean 61% to 39% is a decisive NO. Can they stay in the Euro? I am a lot more pessimistic but it now comes down to politics and how much pressure the Greeks can put up with and the attitude of the creditors. Let's be clear there is not much chance of Greek banks opening up this week, even if they do they will not be able to do normal transactions, a €20 limit is likely and capital controls will last until some sort of agreement with creditors can be reached. The problem is that the creditors will play tough and either Syriza capitulates or it decides to revert back to a New Drachma. The consequences for the Greek economy are likely to be disastrous in the short term to medium term (2 years), Greek bank depsits are not safe, capital controls are likely to last a long time. I feel sorry for the poor Greeks as they will soon learn what a disaster their current leaders have led them into.
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AuthorThe author of this blog is Keith Pilbeam who is currently Professor of International Economics and Finance at City, University of London. 
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