Well the final deal is certainly going to upset some dodgy Russian oligarchs. I mean an up to 40% cut for deposits over €100,000 while protecting those with less than €100,000 seems fine to me. Furthermore, both senior and junior bondholders are now going to be wiped out as indeed they should be. Let's not forget that many of the large depositors benefited from extra high interest rates in Cyrpus that were totally unrealistic rates like 6% or 7% were on offer link which is crazy, so rightfully they do not get bailed out. Also depositors needs to realise the deposit protection applies only up to €100,000, after that you are taking risks. What I find interesting is that the Cypriot parliament that rejected the original deal did not have to ratify the new deal .... I suppose that will reduce the chance of some of the dodgy Russian oligarchs wanting to take "action" against any politicians voting for the package ! So the euro rolls on, a close call but in the end the euro's survival chances are mainly determined by "political will" and even the Germans don't want to risk a break up especially so close to the next German election.
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Yep a nasty budget for most from today's budget further pay freezes for the public sector, economic growth forecast reduced from 1.2% to 0.6% and more misery ahead. Meanwhile 5 wonder bankers at Barclays pick up £40 million in bonuses. According to a Barclays spokesperson:
"The share releases include deferred shares awarded from previous years’ annual performance bonuses." I wonder what the wonderful performance bonuses relate to ???? In 2007 the Barclays share price was £8 today it is £3. In 2009 it was £4 and today it is £3. Do they think this is good performance ???? ARE THEY CRAZY or just ripping everyone off ! Enough of this ridiculous NONSENSE please. By the way the £3 share price is only £3 because of the low interest rates and huge government support both directly and indirectly to the Banking system of which Barclays has been a beneficiary. See Daily mail story link and share price below. The share price is 25% lower than it was 10 years ago some performance ! Well to some extent it needed to happen, the Germans and the rest of the EU should not be made to pay for dodgy Russia money that has been going in and out of Cyprus for years. But why is not the case that shareholders and bond holders in the Cypriot banks are not made to suffer first and foremost ? I find it highly troubling that ordinary Cypriots are being made to pay up for the bailout while debts holders and shareholders in the Cypriot banks are not wiped out first. That is how capitalism is supposed to work. While the junior bond holders have been wiped out, some €2 billion of senior debt holders are not going to lose a cent ! While I remain confident the Euro will survive the crisis, this deal is a lot better deal than Cyprus leaving the Euro and having accounts redenominated into Cypriot pounds which would quickly collapse in value. On the other hand, hitting depositors is a risky strategy as it will undermine confidence in the banking system throughout the Eurozone area. Here is a dailymail link to the story - link. Plus Bloomberg video link See also Wall Street Journal video below: Oh dear things are not looking good for JP Morgan and its CEO Jamie Dimon. Following its $6.2 billion trading loss by trader Bruno Iksil last year. Seems that a senate report is painting a rather unfavourable picture of Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan link . Here is the newscast of the findings link JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon sought to hide escalating trading losses that surpassed $6.2 billion by misleading investors and dodging regulators as the bank's position deteriorated last year, a Senate probe found. When you hedge you should not lose money as the losses on your book are offset by profits elsewhere on your book. so it is very clear that when you lose $6.2 billion you must have been speculating and this is clearly what JP Morgan was doing. Things get worse in the senate report which concludes that JPMorgan had: “a trading operation that piled on risk, ignored limits on risk taking, hid losses, dodged oversight and misinformed the public,” Seems to me that there really needs to be risk management controls in these banks, if you can rack up $6.2 billion of losses and think you are hedging then really something is SERIOUSLY WRONG ! Originally Jamie Dimon stated the losses would be limited and a "tempest in a teapot." Thanks a lot for that deep insight Jamie. Nice little FT video about a Greek invesor losing all their money after investing in a BB+ rated Dutch Bank. Seems she bought BB+ subordinated debt in a Dutch Bank offering her 6.25% and lost all her money when the Dutch nationalised the bank. Well lesson is simple try to avoid investing in "junk" and certainly don't put all your eggs in one basket. At least we are finally seeing some Bank bond holders and shareholders get penalised. As a taxpayer, I am fed up bailing out shareholders and bondholders who take risk and then expect me and "main street" to pick up the bill ! We need more of this, as it is only by share holders and bond holders suffering that pressure will be put on banks to run themselves properly in the future. That is how capitalism is supposed to work. The following post by Miller Samuel link illustrates the long run upward trend in Wall Street pay in 1985 it was 2.9 times that of the New York Private sector while it peaked at 8.9 times that of the private sector in 2007. It is still 7 times that of the private sector in 2011 with the average Securities pay close to $500,000. Of course, many comfortably exceed that average and others are well below that average. Given the huge mess we are in and the fact the stockmarket is not even back to the bubble years of 2000-2001 it looks a bit excessive to me. Don't get me wrong, I believe in good pay for good performance but I just don't understand how when markets have done nothing for 12 years (and are substantially lower in real terms !) people think these wage packets can be justified. The private sector pay in New York is on an altogether flatter path.
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AuthorThe author of this blog is Keith Pilbeam who is currently Professor of International Economics and Finance at City, University of London. Archives
February 2021
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